In the last few days, Gambian social media sites were saturated with a video recording of a phone call the ex-Gambian leader Yahya Jammeh made to his supporters during a rally in Gunjur on October 23.

In his address, Jammeh made several claims about developments he did in the country, that he said were destroyed by President Adama Barrow in 4 years. In this article, we look into the accuracy of those claims.

 

Claim 1: The 2016 election was rigged

Source: Ex-president Yahya Jammeh

Verdict: Inaccurate

Claim

President Barrow took over or assumed power after defeating Jammeh at the polls in 2016. The former President rejected the election results, few days after accepting defeat, describing the process as the “most transparent”, “rig-proof” elections in the world.

His rejection of the results prompted a military intervention by regional leaders dubbed “operation restore democracy”. Jammeh eventually left the country for Equatorial Guinea where he currently lives in exile.

In his widely circulated address to his supporters at the said rally in Gunjur, Jammeh claimed the election was rigged by Barrow with the help of unnamed powers.

“In fact, 2016 they didn’t win… They rigged the elections with support of some powers…,” he said.

Fact-check

In 2016, an amendment to the electoral laws introduced what is called an on-the-spot counting system. The results are counted where votes are cast and results displayed on the wall, after each party agent records in their votes.

According to the Independent Electoral Commission, the difference of votes between Jammeh and Barrow is 19, 221. With a simple majority voting system, just a vote ahead qualifies one to be president.

Jammeh relied on the IEC tabulation error to annul the results. He claimed there was error in the results from the Basse region. However, the Electoral Commission declared the elections as credible, free and fair.

Verdict:

The claim is inaccurate.

 

Claim 2

Claim 2: 99% chance of maternal death

Source: Ex-president Yahya Jammeh

Verdict: Inaccurate

In the same address to his supporters, the ex-Gambian leader, touting his achievements as a president, claimed maternal mortality rate is at a scale never seen in the country.

Jammeh puts chances of death while giving  birth at 99%.

“Even pregnant women are afraid to go to the hospital because there is a 99% likelihood that they will not come back alive,” he said.

Fact-check

There have been frequent protests by activists and women groups about ‘rising’ maternal death in the Gambia. The available data shows the country is far behind in meeting the Sustainable Development Goal target of reducing maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 70 per 100,000 live births by 2030.

However, all available data have shown a decline in maternal death. Not an increase. A recent performance audit published by the National Audit Office (NAO) in September 2020 shows a 36.8% reduction in maternal mortality rate between the year 2000 and 2017.

Meanwhile, the results from the Demographic and Health Survey 2019/2020 estimated that the MMR, in the 7 years preceding the survey, was at 289 maternal deaths in every 100,000 live births. And pregnancy related death within the same period was 320 for every 100,000 live births.

A more recent data on MMR has been published by the Ministry of Health in the first week of October for years 2019 and 2020. The data gathered from public health facilities across the country showed that MMR has declined from 221 deaths per 100, 000 live births in 2019 to 169 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2020.

This shows a significant improvement in MMR from 2007. According to the 2007 Situational Analysis of Obstetric Fistula In The Gambia Report, the maternal mortality ratio was 556 per 100,000 live births. By all indications then, MMR  has significantly reduced in The Gambia, between 2007 and 2020.

 

Deliveries at health facilities

The recent media reports on increased maternal deaths have caused apprehension among women, according to Dr Musa Marena, a gynecologist and head of the Health Ministry’s unit responsible for maternal health.

“We are receiving reports that some people are avoiding the [public] health centers and hospitals because of fear that it is not safe to deliver in these places,” said Dr Marena.

“And when complications arise because of the time they take hesitating to visit the health facilities, it is often late to [save] some of them.”

Despite this though, the Demographic and Health Survey has shown that successful deliveries have actually increased at heath facilities.

“Health facility deliveries increased from 63% in 2013 to 84% in 2019-20, while home deliveries fell from 37% to 15%,” stated the DHS.

Therefore, available data by government agencies and from studies have shown that maternal death has declined under Barrow administration, not increased as claimed by Jammeh.

Verdict:

The claim is inaccurate.

Claim 3

Claim 2: Decline in NAWEC’s capacity

Source: Ex-president Yahya Jammeh

Verdict: Inaccurate

The claim

In the same address to his supporters in Gunjur, the ex-Gambian leader, touting his achievements as a president, said the country is witnessing a declining energy supply.

Jammeh said Gambia’s electricity supply was one of the best on the continent during his time, before he took time to lambast Barrow for destroying it.

“One week after I left the Gambia, the electricity and water goes down… When it comes to electricity, we were one of the best in Africa,” he said.

Fact-check

We looked at these claims from two angles. The first part was answering the question relating to the financial status of NAWEC as at the time President Barrow took over. According to a forensic audit by a UK audit firm Ernst and Young, the national energy company was indebted or owing over D9 billion, with a total liability that exceeded its total assets.

And NAWEC has been increasingly reliant on externally obtained debt to finance not just its capital expenditure, but also its day-to-day operations to service its current debt.

According to a World Bank assessment, NAWEC was essentially bankrupt with a negative net worth of about 6 percent of GDP.  The British audit firm also said the energy company has been insolvent for seven years preceding 2018. Therefore, from a financial point of view, the Barrow administration inherited a NAWEC which was on its knees, if not ‘bankrupt’.

Power generation

At the beginning of 2017 towards 2018, NAWEC’s power supply was at its lowest ebb, prompting a protest called #OccupyWestfield. The national energy company reacted to the poor power supply with two short-term measures.

They signed a power purchase agreement with SENELEC—a Senegalese energy company—to give electricity supply to the North Bank and Lower River Regions. The energy company also entered into another power purchase agreement with Karpowership, a Turkey-based company, for supply of 30 MW of energy.

According to the World Bank— sponsored Gambia Electricity Restoration and Modernization Project, Gambia’s installed capacity of the grid was 99 MW (of which 88 MW was in Greater Banjul Area [GBA]) as of 2018. This was an improvement from 2017 when the available capacity in the GBA deteriorated to 44 MW.

Now, despite the continuous poor energy situation, according to the national energy strategic roadmap developed by the energy ministry, as of mid-2021, the total net installed capacity  of NAWEC is 154.5 MW of reciprocating engines, but only 97.0 MW are currently available for power generation.

The data quoted in the national energy strategic roadmap developed by the energy Ministry shows blackouts in the country have also reduced. In 2017 the country witnessed 36 blackouts, 45 blackouts in 2018, 25 blackouts in 2019, 12 blackouts in 2020 and 11 blackouts in 2021.

Conclusion: The established facts have shown that the Barrow administration inherited an insolvent NAWEC, with huge debt. Not a buoyant energy company as suggested by Jammeh. In addition, the power generation capacity of the national energy company did not decline under Barrow. It improved.

Verdict: the claim is inaccurate

Researched by Mustapha K Darboe